Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 16 2021 | 10871 | 47026 | 347 | 104 | 128 | 274 |
| February 17 2021 | 10884 | 47107 | 348 | 104 | 117 | 247 |
| February 18 2021 | 10895 | 47223 | 351 | 104 | 113 | 223 |
| February 19 2021 | 10906 | 47315 | 351 | 104 | 118 | 199 |
| February 20 2021 | 10923 | 47417 | 351 | 104 | 125 | 180 |
| February 21 2021 | 10927 | 47482 | 351 | 104 | 112 | 160 |
| February 22 2021 | 10938 | 47520 | 351 | 104 | 112 | 156 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 8% | 9 | 0.08% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.4 | 16.1% | 18 | 0.13% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 3.1 | 28.6% | 32 | 0.15% | 44 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.0 | 12.5% | 14 | 0.1% | 18 | 0.13% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.1 | 8% | 9 | 0.09% | 11 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.9 | 9.8% | 11 | 0.09% | 18 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.0 | 9.8% | 11 | 0.1% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 7.1% | 8 | 0.08% | 15 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 11 | 10.1 | 100% | 112 | 0.11% | 156 | 0.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 16 2021 | 6976 | 27670 | 215 | 90 | 66 | 135 |
| February 17 2021 | 6984 | 27715 | 216 | 90 | 66 | 113 |
| February 18 2021 | 6989 | 27758 | 216 | 90 | 64 | 110 |
| February 19 2021 | 6993 | 27804 | 216 | 90 | 63 | 97 |
| February 20 2021 | 7000 | 27847 | 218 | 90 | 60 | 90 |
| February 21 2021 | 7009 | 27886 | 218 | 90 | 57 | 91 |
| February 22 2021 | 7009 | 27914 | 219 | 90 | 47 | 84 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | -0.1 | -1.8% | -1 | -0.01% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.1 | 18.2% | 10 | 0.12% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.6 | 9.1% | 5 | 0.07% | 13 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 14.5% | 8 | 0.1% | 12 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.1 | 20% | 11 | 0.14% | 17 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.1 | 21.8% | 12 | 0.12% | 17 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | -1 | 0.4 | 10.9% | 6 | 0.07% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.6 | 7.3% | 4 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 0 | 5.6 | 100% | 55 | 0.09% | 92 | 0.14% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 16 2021 | 5256 | 18409 | 230 | 74 | 73 | 121 |
| February 17 2021 | 5267 | 18448 | 231 | 74 | 79 | 120 |
| February 18 2021 | 5270 | 18477 | 231 | 75 | 78 | 107 |
| February 19 2021 | 5282 | 18508 | 231 | 75 | 87 | 103 |
| February 20 2021 | 5295 | 18530 | 231 | 75 | 90 | 112 |
| February 21 2021 | 5299 | 18557 | 232 | 75 | 82 | 111 |
| February 22 2021 | 5305 | 18570 | 233 | 75 | 80 | 113 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 7.5% | 6 | 0.11% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.6 | 7.5% | 6 | 0.11% | 13 | 0.24% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 1.3 | 18.8% | 15 | 0.33% | 17 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 8.8% | 7 | 0.13% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 0.7 | 10% | 8 | 0.16% | 14 | 0.28% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.6 | 16.2% | 13 | 0.19% | 18 | 0.27% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.7 | 11.2% | 9 | 0.14% | 14 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.1 | 20% | 16 | 0.25% | 20 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 6 | 7.3 | 100% | 80 | 0.18% | 113 | 0.25% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 16 2021 | 12059 | 51029 | 343 | 75 | 166 | 285 |
| February 17 2021 | 12086 | 51153 | 348 | 75 | 181 | 271 |
| February 18 2021 | 12093 | 51273 | 348 | 75 | 175 | 250 |
| February 19 2021 | 12115 | 51411 | 348 | 75 | 170 | 246 |
| February 20 2021 | 12124 | 51518 | 350 | 75 | 145 | 231 |
| February 21 2021 | 12127 | 51602 | 350 | 75 | 131 | 222 |
| February 22 2021 | 12133 | 51647 | 351 | 75 | 125 | 215 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.0 | 8% | 10 | 0.08% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.1 | 19.2% | 24 | 0.14% | 36 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 2.3 | 17.6% | 22 | 0.1% | 35 | 0.16% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 2.7 | 16% | 20 | 0.15% | 39 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.7 | 10.4% | 13 | 0.1% | 26 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.1 | 8.8% | 11 | 0.08% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.3 | 8% | 10 | 0.07% | 18 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.9 | 12% | 15 | 0.12% | 24 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 6 | 14.1 | 100% | 125 | 0.11% | 215 | 0.18% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 16 2021 | 39346 | 317359 | 1194 | 264 | 758 | 1261 |
| February 17 2021 | 39440 | 317483 | 1196 | 264 | 771 | 1276 |
| February 18 2021 | 39584 | 317772 | 1197 | 267 | 816 | 1212 |
| February 19 2021 | 39744 | 318193 | 1204 | 268 | 937 | 1257 |
| February 20 2021 | 39861 | 318659 | 1209 | 267 | 955 | 1273 |
| February 21 2021 | 39946 | 319186 | 1211 | 267 | 907 | 1277 |
| February 22 2021 | 40001 | 319547 | 1214 | 267 | 877 | 1233 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 4.4 | 5.1% | 45 | 0.07% | 59 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 30.1 | 29.1% | 255 | 0.36% | 359 | 0.51% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 36.9 | 34.7% | 304 | 0.29% | 417 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 9.1 | 10.8% | 95 | 0.12% | 131 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 4.6 | 6.6% | 58 | 0.09% | 95 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | -1 | 5.1 | 6.5% | 57 | 0.09% | 81 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.7 | 3.8% | 33 | 0.06% | 46 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.7 | 3.4% | 30 | 0.06% | 45 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 55 | 97.7 | 100% | 877 | 0.16% | 1233 | 0.23% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 16 2021 | 556332 | 2570798 | 25422 | 6204 | 7177 | 12072 |
| February 17 2021 | 556989 | 2575026 | 25498 | 6214 | 7163 | 11552 |
| February 18 2021 | 557722 | 2579840 | 25556 | 6232 | 7353 | 10767 |
| February 19 2021 | 558496 | 2584375 | 25635 | 6267 | 7446 | 10275 |
| February 20 2021 | 559172 | 2588501 | 25716 | 6284 | 7301 | 10017 |
| February 21 2021 | 559575 | 2592363 | 25743 | 6284 | 6465 | 9749 |
| February 22 2021 | 559998 | 2595614 | 25775 | 6284 | 5950 | 9629 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 31 | 38.6 | 6% | 359 | 0.06% | 590 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 79 | 108.4 | 17.1% | 1017 | 0.13% | 1573 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 68 | 105.7 | 16.9% | 1006 | 0.13% | 1603 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 69 | 89.6 | 14.8% | 880 | 0.12% | 1392 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 53 | 77.3 | 13.1% | 779 | 0.11% | 1255 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 49 | 83.0 | 13.6% | 809 | 0.1% | 1379 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 44 | 61.0 | 10.2% | 608 | 0.08% | 1010 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 30 | 49.3 | 8.3% | 492 | 0.08% | 827 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 423 | 612.9 | 100% | 5950 | 0.1% | 9629 | 0.17% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.9 | 16.2 | 21 | 10.1 | 20.4 | 10.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.2 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 11.9% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 21.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.2 | 21.7 | 16.4 | 14.1 | 21.9 | 11.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.6 | 50.5 | 40.1 | 97.7 | 95.3 | 25.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 20.8 | 21.2 | 612.9 | 879.3 | 13.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.63 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-15 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5396"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges